Bhutan is taking bold steps to combat climate-induced disasters, and the World Bank is playing a crucial role in this transformation. Through a decade-long partnership, Bhutan’s National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) is building a cutting-edge weather and early warning system to protect lives, secure livelihoods, and fortify the nation’s resilience. From AI-driven forecasting to advanced flood monitoring, this roadmap will redefine climate preparedness in the Himalayas.
Nestled in the heart of the Himalayas, Bhutan—a country renowned for its pioneering Gross National Happiness philosophy—is facing a new and urgent challenge: the increasing threat of climate-induced disasters. Yet, within this challenge lies an opportunity for transformation. Through a decade-long roadmap, Bhutan is set to revolutionize its approach to weather, water, climate, and early warning services, making its people and economy more resilient to climate shocks.
The Climate Crisis in Bhutan: A Nation at Risk
The urgency of Bhutan’s climate challenge cannot be overstated. The country has already witnessed devastating climate-related disasters:
- August 2024 – A flash flood, intensified by upstream landslides, affected 70 households in Thimphu.
- 2023 – A catastrophic flash flood claimed 23 lives and caused severe damage to the Yungichhu hydropower project construction site.
- 2021 – Heavy rainfall impacted 2,500 acres of farmland across 18 Dzongkhags, destroying 2,400 metric tons of crops.
Adding to the risk, Bhutan is home to 700 glaciers and 567 glacial lakes, with 17 lakes posing a high risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)—a ticking time bomb for communities living downstream. With nearly 50% of Bhutan’s workforce engaged in agriculture, which depends on unpredictable rainfed farming, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
A Decade of Progress: Laying the Foundation for Resilience
For the past ten years, Bhutan’s National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) has been working in partnership with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) to build a strong foundation for weather forecasting and climate services.
Some key achievements so far:
- Advanced Weather Forecasting Platform – In 2018, a state-of-the-art system cut the time required for daily forecasts in half.
- Improved Aviation Safety – New wind profilers and ceilometers at Paro International Airport enhance flight operations.
- National Hydromet Policy (2023) – A strategic framework paving the way for a $40M disaster resilience fund to enhance GLOF early warning systems.
Challenges: The Gaps That Need Urgent Attention
Despite these advances, Bhutan’s hydromet system still faces major shortcomings:
- Limited Weather Monitoring Stations – The network lacks reliable stations, leaving many areas, especially high elevations, unmonitored.
- Manual Data Transmission – Weather data collection relies on manual reporting, causing delays and inaccuracies.
- Outdated Forecasting Models – Forecasting techniques need modernization to predict extreme weather events more accurately.
- Inadequate Flood Warning Systems – Current flood monitoring covers only major rivers, leaving smaller tributaries vulnerable to flash floods.
The Roadmap to Climate Resilience (2024–2034): Bhutan’s Bold Vision
Recognizing these gaps, Bhutan has devised a 10-year roadmap that will completely transform its hydromet and early warning capabilities by 2034.
- Upgrading Infrastructure
- New weather radars & synoptic stations to fill critical gaps in weather monitoring.
- Upper-air observation systems to track changing atmospheric patterns.
- Expanded flood & GLOF monitoring to include smaller tributaries and high-risk glacial lakes.
- AI-Powered Forecasting & Impact-Based Warnings
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) & Machine Learning (ML) to enable more precise, localized extreme weather predictions.
- Impact-based forecasting to provide targeted warnings (e.g., agricultural risks, road safety alerts).
- Strengthening Human Capital
- ISO 9001:2015 certification for aviation services, bringing Bhutan’s meteorology to international standards.
- Training programs aligned with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards to build highly skilled hydromet experts.
- Regional & Global Partnerships
- Bhutan continues to play a leadership role in the South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF), fostering collaboration with neighboring countries.
- A partnership with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to integrate with cutting-edge global forecasting models.
Why This Matters: The Future of Climate Resilience in Bhutan
Bhutan’s 10-year roadmap represents far more than a technological upgrade—it’s an investment in saving lives, securing livelihoods, and safeguarding the nation’s economy.
By 2034, Bhutan’s NCHM will evolve into an advanced hydromet service provider, ensuring that climate-induced disasters no longer take the country by surprise. Bhutan’s efforts also set an example for other climate-vulnerable nations by proving that strategic investments, science, and technology can drive climate resilience.
As Bhutan stands at the forefront of global climate action, one thing is clear: The battle against climate-induced disasters is one the country is determined to win.
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